Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4633
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
YX 4633 · CMH → DCA
departs 4:41 PM ET · arrives 6:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 57%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14 22%
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.41 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.