Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4633
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 4633 · CMH → DCA
departs 4:42 PM ET · arrives 6:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 25%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.11 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.