Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 12 Tomorrow
YX 5851 · BOS → BWI
departs 9:04 PM ET · arrives 10:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 86%
Mon 10/12
Tue 10/13 37%
Wed 10/14 30%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±4 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.69 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 233 ft Visibility 0.866667 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.