Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5851 · BOS → BWI
departs 8:06 PM ET · arrives 9:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13 45%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip 0.04 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.