Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 5851 · BOS → BWI
departs 8:07 PM ET · arrives 9:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 30%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±4 pts
+21 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +26 pts in 24h
+26 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
8pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.03 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.