Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1612 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 1612 · MIA → DCA

departs 10:03 AM ET · arrives 12:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 10am departures from MIA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1612 · MIA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?