Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 945 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 945 · DCA → BOS

departs 3:10 PM ET · arrives 5:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±4 pts +21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at BOS that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 945 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?