Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 945 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 945 · DCA → BOS

departs 2:53 PM ET · arrives 4:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at BOS that day

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 945 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?