AA 955 · BOS → DCA

departs 5:43 PM ET · arrives 7:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.06 in

DCA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 955 · BOS → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?