Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 955 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 955 · BOS → DCA

departs 5:43 PM ET · arrives 7:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.08 in

DCA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 955 · BOS → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?