Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 2493
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
B6 2493 · ACK → DCA
departs 10:52 AM ET · arrives 12:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Mon 10/12 44%
Tue 10/13
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 21%
Sat 10/17 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
ACK (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.01 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.