Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 2493
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
B6 2493 · ACK → DCA
departs 10:52 AM ET · arrives 12:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 10/13 15%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 21%
Sat 10/17 16%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
ACK is quiet at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ACK (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.