Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4318
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4318 · JAN → IAH
departs 7:10 AM CT · arrives 8:59 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15 9%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave JAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAN
Weather at each end
JAN (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.