Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4318
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
C5 4318 · JAN → IAH
departs 7:09 AM CT · arrives 8:58 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/14 6%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 6%
Mon 10/19 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave JAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAN
Weather at each end
JAN (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.