Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4318
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
C5 4318 · JAN → IAH
departs 7:08 AM CT · arrives 8:57 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 9%
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave JAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAN
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JAN (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.