Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4813
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4813 · IAH → BRO
departs 10:12 AM CT · arrives 11:42 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Mon 10/12 14%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BRO more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BRO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at BRO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BRO?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
10am departures from IAH are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into BRO at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.09 in
BRO (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.