Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4813
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
C5 4813 · IAH → BRO
departs 10:10 AM CT · arrives 11:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Tue 10/13 14%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 17%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at BRO more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BRO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at BRO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BRO?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from IAH are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into BRO at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BRO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.