Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 793 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

DL 793 · MIA → MSP

departs 2:29 PM ET · arrives 5:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 793 · MIA → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?