Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2146
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
F9 2146 · LAS → ORD
departs 12:12 AM PT · arrives 6:04 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Mon 10/12 37%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 30%
Thu 10/15 33%
Fri 10/16 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.1d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
12am departures from LAS are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.