Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2146
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 2146 · LAS → ORD
departs 12:13 AM PT · arrives 6:02 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Tue 10/13 26%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 33%
Fri 10/16 31%
Sun 10/18 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±7 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.