Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3452
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
MQ 3452 · DCA → XNA
departs 7:18 PM ET · arrives 9:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 23%
Thu 10/15 25%
Fri 10/16 25%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
XNA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.