Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3452
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 3452 · DCA → XNA
departs 7:33 PM ET · arrives 9:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 10/13 19%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 25%
Fri 10/16 25%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
XNA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.92 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.