Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4067
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
MQ 4067 · BGR → DCA
departs 5:10 PM ET · arrives 7:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 24%
Thu 10/15 30%
Fri 10/16 38%
Sun 10/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave BGR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BGR that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from BGR are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
BGR (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.67 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.