Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4067
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4067 · BGR → DCA
departs 5:08 PM ET · arrives 7:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Tue 10/13 39%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 30%
Fri 10/16 38%
Sun 10/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BGR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
BGR (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.34 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.