Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4209
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
MQ 4209 · CLT → SGF
departs 11:03 AM ET · arrives 12:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Mon 10/12 15%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at SGF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SGF?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
CLT is prone to delays
↑
CLT is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SGF (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.