Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4209
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
MQ 4209 · CLT → SGF
departs 9:51 AM ET · arrives 11:14 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Mon 10/12 15%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SGF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SGF?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at SGF that day
↑
CLT is prone to delays
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SGF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.79 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.