Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5173 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

OH 5173 · IAH → DFW

departs 10:39 AM CT · arrives 11:57 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from IAH are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at IAH that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.09 in

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5173 · IAH → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?