Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5296 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

OH 5296 · DCA → DSM

departs 12:03 PM ET · arrives 1:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into DSM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5296 · DCA → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?