Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5296 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

OH 5296 · DCA → DSM

departs 12:16 PM ET · arrives 2:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DCA that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5296 · DCA → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?