OH 5371 · BTV → DCA

departs 5:12 PM ET · arrives 7:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±5 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 329 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at BTV that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BTV usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BTV (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.45 in

DCA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5371 · BTV → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?