Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5371 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

OH 5371 · BTV → DCA

departs 5:13 PM ET · arrives 7:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BTV

↓ BTV usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BTV (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5371 · BTV → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?