Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
OO 3851 · MSP → RAP
departs 2:45 PM CT · arrives 3:29 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 9%
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 16%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at RAP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RAP?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at RAP that day
↑
2pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RAP (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.