Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 3851 · MSP → RAP
departs 2:45 PM CT · arrives 3:29 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Mon 10/12 15%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 18%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at RAP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RAP?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RAP (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.