Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4136
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
OO 4136 · MOT → MSP
departs 7:45 AM CT · arrives 9:25 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Mon 10/12 14%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 10%
Thu 10/15 9%
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MOT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at MOT that day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MOT (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.