Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4136
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 4136 · MOT → MSP
departs 7:45 AM CT · arrives 9:25 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Mon 10/12 14%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 9%
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MOT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MOT (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.