Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4392
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 4392 · DEN → SEA
departs 8:53 AM MT · arrives 10:34 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 28%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 28%
Thu 10/15 29%
Fri 10/16 32%
Sat 10/17 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±6 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.