Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4392
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 4392 · DEN → SEA
departs 8:26 AM MT · arrives 10:12 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Tue 10/13 33%
Wed 10/14 37%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 32%
Sat 10/17 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±7 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
8am departures from DEN are usually not late
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.23 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.