Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4392
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4392 · DEN → SEA
departs 8:47 AM MT · arrives 10:30 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 27%
Tue 10/13 30%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 29%
Fri 10/16 32%
Sat 10/17 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.4 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
8am departures from DEN are usually not late
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.4 mi Precip 0.48 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.