Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6187 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

YV 6187 · IAH → SAT

departs 12:15 PM CT · arrives 1:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at IAH that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SAT that day

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

SAT (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6187 · IAH → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?