Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6187 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

YV 6187 · IAH → SAT

departs 12:13 PM CT · arrives 1:23 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ YV's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6187 · IAH → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?