Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6187 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

YV 6187 · IAH → SAT

departs 12:14 PM CT · arrives 1:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ YV's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6187 · IAH → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?