YX 4508 · DCA → STL

departs 11:25 AM ET · arrives 1:08 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from DCA are often late

↑ STL is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4508 · DCA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?