Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4508
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 4508 · DCA → STL
departs 11:10 AM ET · arrives 12:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13 11%
Wed 10/14 10%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 15%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
11am departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DCA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.