Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5682
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
YX 5682 · DCA → BOS
departs 10:02 PM ET · arrives 11:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 31%
Sat 10/17 26%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.