Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5682
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 5682 · DCA → BOS
departs 10:00 PM ET · arrives 11:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 31%
Sat 10/17 27%
Sun 10/18 15%
Mon 10/19 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.