Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2468 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

AA 2468 · DFW → OAX

departs 10:09 AM CT · arrives 12:14 PM CST

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at OAX more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAX?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAX

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2468 · DFW → OAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAX?