Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2468 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 2468 · DFW → OAX

departs 9:57 AM CT · arrives 11:51 AM CST

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at OAX more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAX?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2468 · DFW → OAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAX?