Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 2454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
B6 2454 · DCA → BOS
departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 12:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 10/13 36%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 21%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sun 10/18 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
11am departures from DCA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.