Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 2954
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
B6 2954 · DCA → BOS
departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 6:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Tue 10/13 71%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 40%
Fri 10/16 53%
Sun 10/18 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±1 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 45% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.