Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3045
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 3045 · ATL → MSP
departs 9:59 AM ET · arrives 11:46 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Mon 10/12 20%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.